{"product_id":"superforecasting-the-art-and-science-of-prediction-paperback","title":"Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction - Paperback","description":"\u003cdiv\u003e\u003cp style=\"text-align: right;\"\u003e\u003ca href=\"https:\/\/reportcopyrightinfringement.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\"\u003e\u003cb\u003eReport copyright infringement\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/a\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\u003cp\u003eby \u003cb\u003ePhilip E. Tetlock\u003c\/b\u003e (Author), \u003cb\u003eDan Gardner\u003c\/b\u003e (Author)\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e\u003ci\u003eNEW YORK TIMES \u003c\/i\u003eBESTSELLER - NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY \u003ci\u003eTHE ECONOMIST \u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cb\u003e\u003cb\u003e\"\u003c\/b\u003eThe most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's \u003ci\u003eThinking, Fast and Slow\u003c\/i\u003e.\u003cb\u003e\"\u003c\/b\u003e--Jason Zweig, \u003ci\u003eThe Wall Street Journal\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? \u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e In \u003ci\u003eSuperforecasting\u003c\/i\u003e, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are \"superforecasters.\" \u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. \u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003ci\u003eSuperforecasting\u003c\/i\u003e offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic.\u003ch3\u003eAuthor Biography\u003c\/h3\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePhilip E. Tetlock\u003c\/b\u003e is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania and holds appointments in the psychology and political science departments and the Wharton School of Business. He and his wife, Barbara Mellers, are the co-leaders of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study. He is also the author of \u003ci\u003eExpert Political Judgment\u003c\/i\u003e and (with Aaron Belkin) \u003ci\u003eCounterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics\u003c\/i\u003e. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cb\u003eDan Gardner\u003c\/b\u003e is a \u003ci\u003eNew York Times\u003c\/i\u003e bestselling author, speaker, and consultant. His three books on psychology and decision-making--published in 25 countries and 19 languages--have been praised by everyone from \u003ci\u003eThe Economist\u003c\/i\u003e to Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman. Prior to becoming an author, Gardner was a newspaper columnist, talking head, and investigative journalist who won or was nominated for every major award in Canadian newspaper journalism. He is an honorary senior fellow at the University of Ottawa's Graduate School of Public Policy and International Affairs and lives in Ottawa, Canada.\n            \u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eNumber of Pages:\u003c\/strong\u003e 352\u003c\/div\u003e\n            \u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eDimensions:\u003c\/strong\u003e 0.7 x 8 x 5.2 IN\u003c\/div\u003e\n            \u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eIllustrated:\u003c\/strong\u003e Yes\u003c\/div\u003e\n            \u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003ePublication Date:\u003c\/strong\u003e September 13, 2016\u003c\/div\u003e\n            ","brand":"BooksCloud","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52068342038829,"sku":"9780804136716","price":19.39,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0938\/3185\/6429\/files\/superforecasting-the-art-and-science-of-prediction-paperback-4392059.webp?v=1780166645","url":"https:\/\/ishookbooks.com\/products\/superforecasting-the-art-and-science-of-prediction-paperback","provider":"iShook Books","version":"1.0","type":"link"}