{"product_id":"the-signal-and-the-noise-why-so-many-predictions-fail-but-some-dont-paperback","title":"The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't - Paperback","description":"\u003cdiv\u003e\u003cp style=\"text-align: right;\"\u003e\u003ca href=\"https:\/\/reportcopyrightinfringement.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\"\u003e\u003cb\u003eReport copyright infringement\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/a\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\u003cp\u003eby \u003cb\u003eNate Silver\u003c\/b\u003e (Author)\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eUPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER \u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\"One of the more momentous books of the decade.\" --\u003ci\u003eThe New York Times Book Review\u003c\/i\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003eNate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger--all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. \u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003eDrawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the \"prediction paradox\" The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. \u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003eIn keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good--or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary--and dangerous--science. \u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003eSilver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. \u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003eWith everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.\u003ch3\u003eAuthor Biography\u003c\/h3\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eNate Silver\u003c\/b\u003e is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.\u003c\/p\u003e\n            \u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eNumber of Pages:\u003c\/strong\u003e 576\u003c\/div\u003e\n            \u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eDimensions:\u003c\/strong\u003e 1.1 x 8.3 x 5.4 IN\u003c\/div\u003e\n            \u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eIllustrated:\u003c\/strong\u003e Yes\u003c\/div\u003e\n            \u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003ePublication Date:\u003c\/strong\u003e February 03, 2015\u003c\/div\u003e\n            ","brand":"BooksCloud","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":51964683485485,"sku":"9780143125082","price":20.99,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0938\/3185\/6429\/files\/the-signal-and-the-noise-why-so-many-predictions-fail-but-some-dont-paperback-4332944.webp?v=1775476626","url":"https:\/\/ishookbooks.com\/products\/the-signal-and-the-noise-why-so-many-predictions-fail-but-some-dont-paperback","provider":"iShook Books","version":"1.0","type":"link"}